State of the Utah Jazz | Podcast

The season is winding down and we’re taking inventory on the state of the team. From pick status and remaining schedule to the core nucleus and future roster construction.
2023-24
season
draft
Published

March 20, 2023

Intro

Welcome to Jabber Jazz | Fan-driven, Ad-free content on Utah Jazz basketball

Adam Bushman Twitter | @adam_bushman

Today:

  • Pick status
  • Remaining schedule
  • The core nucleus
  • Future roster construction

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Pick Status

  • Current positions
    • FiveThirtyEight says…
      • UTA: 10
      • MIN: 13 (tie)
      • HOU/BKN/PHI: 28
  • Complications
    • MIN injuries
      • Edwards, Towns, Conley (coming)
    • UTA plan
      • Interpretation
        • Decide player status based on health and opponent;
        • Upon tipoff, all out for the win
    • Additional tankers
      • POR, IND have rested big portions of the rotation and considering player “shut down”
    • Time
      • LAL and LeBron
      • NOP, Zion and Ingram
  • Takeaways
    • Only real way to ensure competitive draft position is your strategy
    • Jazz employed a strategy VERY late
    • No other teams have a Markkanen, Walker, and Hardy so its hard to tank
  • Does it matter?
    • #7 and #10 are in fair play
      • Requires like 2 wins rest of the way
      • Win lotto: 11% vs 14%
      • Jump to top 4: 46% vs 52%
      • This is the end of a high upside draft range with some volatility
    • #10 and #13
      • Win lotto: 4% vs 14%
      • 19% vs 52%
      • This is a draft range that is similar talent wise into the late teens
    • Why have a high pick?
      • Depend on the fewest teams to “mis evaluate”
    • Impact?
      • Affects ceiling
      • Doesn’t mean the Jazz won’t be good

Thoughts on the Nucleaus

  • Lauri Markkanen
    • Best combo of dunks + threes in the league
    • Rivals only Kevin Durant all-time
    • Starting to get All-NBA buzz
      • A complication for the “tanking”
    • Definitely a top 15 season
      • Doesn’t mean a top 15 player
      • Ringer put him at 28
      • Siakam, Haliburton, Brown, Sabonis, Young, Irving, etc. all done it longer than Markkanen
  • Walker Kessler
    • Drafted 22nd, 30+ games started
    • Top 3 rookie season
    • Where does he rank among starting centers?
      • Back in December I put him in the bottom 11 tier with Plumlee, Nurkic, etc.
        • Still hadn’t started a game, just 16 mpg
      • Now?
        • Tier 3, right about average
        • Massive win for the franchise
Tier Centers
1 Embiid, Jokic
2 Adebayo, Turner, Gobert, Lopez, Allen, Horford, Ayton
3 Zubac, Adams, Capela, Carter Jr., Powell, Claxton
4 Vucevic, Plumlee, Len, Hartenstein, Bryant, Koloko, Muscala, Nurkic, Wiseman
  • Ochai Agbaji
    • Performing real well of late, showing some expanded skills
    • Non-straight line drive, movement shooting, finishes at the rim, defensive activity
    • Gaining that confidence of where to be, what to do
      • Used to just run from corner to corner
    • At 37% from 3, 147 attempts
      • 39%, 126 attempts
    • Tony Jones, The Athletic
      • Jazz high on Agbaji, definitely part of the core
      • They see him as a 2; lean toward a 3 in the draft

March Madness Notes

  • Cason Wallace
    • Showed everything in that K State game
      • Defense, creation, finishing, toughness, shot making
      • Not the high upside guy but the type who coaches will trust and has a great foundation in everything
  • Gradey Dick
    • Saw the contrasts:
      • vs Howard you see why he’s a late lotto pick
      • vs Arkansas you see why the upside is questionable
    • Ultimately he’s going to be dependend on teammates and coaches to leverage him in the scheme
  • Anthony Black
    • Just locked up Gradey Dick; made him a non-factor
    • Feels like he doesn’t have the leway to get his usage up
      • Holding back offensively
      • Will need a franchise who encourages and believes in his outside shot
  • Jarace Walker
    • Houston is geared around Sasser, for good or bad
      • Jarace doesn’t get the touches or the shot volume but impacts things
      • You get him in a situation where a team begs him to shine offensively will be good
    • Integral to the Auburn comeback
      • High level defensively; 6 blocks and a lot of transition disruption
  • Brandon Miller
    • Morphs for what is needed; didn’t need to explode vs Corpus Christi
    • Shined on both ends vs Maryland
  • Nick Smith Jr.
    • Just don’t “feel his impact”
    • Workouts will be crucial for him
  • Keyonte George
    • Had “duds” in both games, really
  • Nice showings
    • Terquavion Smith, Dereck Lively II, Jalen-Hood Schifino, Dariq Whitehead
  • Poor showings
    • Kyle Filipowski

Offseason Question Marks

  • A lot of the buzz is the Jazz achieve contention again in 2025/26 via trade
    • With all the picks in tow, they’re uniquely positioned to land the next available guy
    • Who is that?
      • Many talk about Luka if but he and a handful of others are made available, they pick where they go
      • Could be Lillard or Butler but that’s a pretty short term approach
    • Fans have a unique list: young, star, team control, fit
      • But also must be gettable, healthy, etc.
    • My personal theory
      • LaMelo Ball is the guy that balances a lot of that
      • I like the fit with Markkanen, Kessler, and Agbaji
    • Other theories
      • Jaylen Brown
        • Buzz of discontent in BOS
        • Ainge reached for him in the draft, Hardy was “his guy” as a coach
        • IMO, it requires a three team deal
        • Love the fit, however

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