Walker Kessler & Other Topics | Podcast

Today we tackle 5 topics in 5 minutes each, beginning with Walker Kessler and ending with how the Jazz are uniquely positioned to lean into any direction with success.
2023-24
development
trades
draft
Author

Adam Bushman

Published

December 30, 2022

Intro

Welcome to Jabber Jazz | Fan-driven, Ad-free content on Utah Jazz basketball

Adam Bushman Twitter | @adam_bushman

Today:

  • 5 topics in 5 minutes

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Walker Kessler Craze

  • Timeline…
    • Jazz trade for Walker
    • Injury prevents any Summer League
    • Immediate backup C in preseason, despite Zeller & Azubuike
    • Carved out a consistent 15-20 min playing time
    • Just finished a stretch of starting
  • Performance
    • 41 centers with 10 or fewer games started and 100 or more total minutes
      • Walker rank…
      • 3rd in BPM
      • 4th in minutes
      • 7th in efficiency
      • 35th in usage
    • Jazz with Kessler…
      • ON: +5.0
      • OFF: -1.7
    • Jazz with Kessler starting…
      • 3-3
      • 4th best plus-minues (2nd among starters)
  • Walker is deserving to start sooner than later
    • Kelly can take Vando’s spot or come off bench
    • Minutes can stay the same
    • Hopefully he turns into Zubac role

More John Collins Buzz

  • Shams Charania reported 3 team framework for a John Collins trade to Utah. Deal fell apart with UTah asking for multiple 1sts
  • Vanderbilt + Beasley -> PHX, Crowder + Shamet -> ATL, Collins + 1st -> UTA
  • Ainge should be asking for more
    • Collins is lowest value
    • Vando, Beas are peak value
  • PHX is making off here like a bandit
  • I’m bullish on Collins
    • Would you rather have Collins or a late 1st? Collins
    • Showed prior to Trae what he was capable of offensively
    • Showed in ECF why he can be a valuable rotation piece
    • This year is just a ton of bad luck
  • Beas is a guy I want to keep
    • You’ll be looking for his skillset eventually
    • Only 25

Leveraging Lauri

  • Lauri is going bonkers
    • +9.0% rTS is crazy elite
    • Only Jokic and Durant exceed his efficiency for +24% USG and 1000+ minutes played
    • Making 44% of his 3’s on 7 a game
      • Jazz need to plumb that like crazy, hopefully to get closer to 10 attempts per game
  • Bad news is that usage is low and fit for #2
    • He’s got a super low % of FGM unassisted
    • He struggles to get the ball and create for himself late in games or when defenses zero in on him
    • That’s his development in the offseason
      • No shame if he’s not that type of player
        • Basicaly he’s year 2 Michael Porter Jr. with defense
        • Will be selected as an All-Star, in all likelihood

Widening Draft Tier 2

  • All indications are that tier 2 of the NBA draft is getting wider
    • Anthony Black impressing
    • GG Jackson ascending
    • Ausar Thompson falling a little
  • Josh Roberts (from last pod) 1-8 as All-Star potential and 9-13 as starter level
  • There appears to be a lot of volatility in this range. A guy who may be slotted for 6 could end up at 10
    • This is good news for the Jazz, a team who best case scenario is in the middle here and worst case at the back end

Positioning

  • At 19-18 the Jazz are almost halfway through the season and truly find themselves in “the middle”
  • Really whichever way the Jazz want to go, there’s a path to it
    • 3.5 games out of a top 7 seed
    • Currently slotted for the play in
    • 1 game out of a top 6 seed for the Western Conference
  • Looking ahead with the projection systems, if Jazz want
    • A #3 odds, that’s 25 wins; 0.133 win rate
    • A #7 odds, that’s 35 wins; 0.355 win rate
    • A #10 odds, that’s 39 wins; a 0.444 win rate
    • A #14 odds, that’s 42 wins, a 0.511 win rate
    • Jazz have a 0.400 win rate since Nov. 9

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