Intro
Welcome to Jabber Jazz | Fan-driven, Ad-free content on Utah Jazz basketball
Adam Bushman Twitter | @adam_bushman
Today:
- Team strengths & weaknesses
- Trade potential for Utah
- 3 past team comparisons for this year’s Jazz
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Team strengths & weaknesses
Jazz are 14-11; big win streaks, big losing streaks; what is this team?
Strengths:
- We’re exceptional offensively: 4th in NBA. How?
- Great shot advantage team:
- 3rd largest 3P advantage (T3PA - O3PA)
- 5th largest SS advantage
- Good shooting team:
- 4th in eFG% advantage
- 5th largest 3P% advantage
- Fairly neutral on offensive possession swing
- min(TOV) and max(OREB): 12th
- We’re good at transition but rarely get out
- Our 5-out groups are special (no Vando, no Kessler)
- 565 poss, +9 diff (91%tile), 120.7 offense
- It gets tough when we aren’t 5-out but also lack interior size
- Great shot advantage team:
Weaknesses:
- We’re pretty poor defensively: 26th
- We defend the shot decent and we force bad shots generally
- We’re 24th in Rim Freq advantage
- On defense, it’s worst with possessions
- max(TOV) and min(OREB): 26th
- We can’t stop or prevent opposing teams from running
- We struggle with the teams with size in the middle
- PHI, PHX, LAC
- We defend the shot decent and we force bad shots generally
To be clear, IMO, we’re a play-in team, sneak into playoffs if we keep at this all season long. That’s not a contender. That’s an invitation for Luka, Steph, Jokic, or Booker to wipe the floor with us in a 1-4, 2-4 series loss.
Trade potential for Utah
- Rumors link
- Jazz want to trade Rudy Gay
- This is a bit of “no duh”
- Efficiency is awful (-12.7% rTS)
- Minutes ahead of Fontecchio & Agbaji
- Doesn’t fit anything we’re doing
- Worst BPM of any player with 100+ minutes
- Problems
- Currently injured (finger)
- Player option for next year ($6.5M)
- Options
- Just Gay? You’re giving up a pick (no way you do that)
- Bigger deal? He can be a concession for something
- I don’t know who’d even want him
- This is a bit of “no duh”
- Jazz interested in John Collins
- Always made a lot of sense
- Stretchy 4, can shoot, good on the glass, young (25), athletic
- Discussed last couple years as available
- Asking price
- ATL asked for Markkanen…clearly that went no where
- If that’s the required cost, he’s staying in ATL another trade deadline
- Value I’d give up?
- Clarkson + Gay + BKN 1st
- ATL frees up some money since Clarkson will opt out; get another pick for flexibility
- UTA takes on the 4 year contract for Collins
- Always made a lot of sense
- Jazz intent on keeping Clarkson, Markkanen; high price for Vanderbilt
- Markkanen is obvious
- Team control for two years after this one
- Young (25)
- Proving to be a great #2, possible All-Star this year
- Your development project
- Likely resign, max guy in 2025 offseason
- Clarkson is nuanced
- Cultural icon
- Will stay if we want him
- Will opt out and look for a 3 yr/$75M deal (19% of the cap)
- Probably impossible to trade afterward; 31 upon signing
- Has shown additional improvement, development (passing)
- Value I’d give up
- Mentioned the Collins trade
- Clarkson + ’25 pick for Cameron Johnson + Saric (or Crowder)
- Jazz extend Johnson (currently injured)
- Suns can extend Clarkson (perhaps clears way for Crowder)
- Vanderbilt
- Such an amazing contract ($4M this year and next) at only age 23
- Will take an awesome offer
- Value I’d give up
- Vando + two-2nds for Jonathan Kuminga
- Vando + one-2nd + swap rights with BKN pick (ie if BKN pick is better than GSW, they get it)
- Markkanen is obvious
- Jazz want to trade Rudy Gay
- Other ideas
- I’ve floated Jimmy Butler as a move to go all-in on Markkanen being good right now
- In a couple years, Markkanen is going to get $40M-$50M; that’s 24-30% of the cap
- If it’s too late to tank and you believe in Hardy and this group, you almost owe it to yourself to do it right
- Value I’d give up
- Start with: Sexton-THT-NAW + middle ’23 1st, ’25 1st, ’27 1st
- Then try adding in another pick
- Then try Sexton-Beasley-Gay + 3 picks
- Deandre Ayton was available over the offseason, PHX matched IND offer, but he was always thought to eventually be on the move
- He’s been bad-ish this year; biggest issue is he lacks impact on the game
- But he’s 24, former #1 pick, locked up for 4 years at 25% of the cap, major cog for PHX getting to Finals
- He’s lacked volume (only 11.7 TSA/gm this year), he’s lacked empowerment and trust (Hardy’s calling card)
- He’s a #3 or a co-#2; have your frontcourt of the future
- Value I’d give up
- Olynyk + JC + Vando + two-1sts (BKN ’23 and ’25)
- May feel like a lot but you gotta beat other offers and match what PHX needs now
- JC is opting out, they may just move on from Olynyk so possibly two rentals
- I’ve floated Jimmy Butler as a move to go all-in on Markkanen being good right now
3 past team comparisons for this year’s Jazz
These are facsimiles from NBA past that shed insights into what could be in store for the Jazz. They are stylistic comparisons.
We’ll stay away from drawing exact conclusions and instead just consider them as potential future paths the franchise may traverse.
2011-12 Denver Nuggets
Timeline:
- Traded Carmelo Anthony -> NYK in the offseason
- 2 firsts, 2 seconds, 1 swap
- Chandler, Mozgov, Felton, Gallinari, Koufos
- Cash
- With a scrappy squad of no #1s, finished 6th and then 3rd in West
- Subsequent finishes
- 11th in West
- 12th in West
- Never completely bottomed out
- Got lucky(?) with NYK being bad and turning into Jamal Murray
- Got lucky with Jokic in the 2nd round
Takeaways:
- It’s a cautionary tale of delaying the inevitable
- It’s also a case of building and losing value because you bought into it
Post-Kawhi Spurs
Timeline:
- Kawhi Leonard -> SAS in the offseason
- Demar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl, 1st
- Never tanked, until possibly this very season, yet…
- 2018
- #18 - Lonnie Walker
- 2019
- #19 - Luka Samanic
- #29 - Keldon Johnson
- 2020
- #11 - Devin Vassell
- 2021
- #12 - Josh Primo
- 2022
- #9 - Jeremy Sochan
- #20 - Malachi Branham
- #25 - Blake Wesley
- 2018
- 8 first round picks in 5 seasons
- Lucky with Johnson
- Unlucky with Primo
- Potential with Vassell, Sochan
- Rest are meh
Takeaways:
- Jazz have 11 (minus 1) firsts in the next 5 seasons
- Goal of high picks is to avoid being dependent on other teams missing on prospects
- Spurs had a foundation but mid-picks never pushed them anywhere
- Similarly, Jazz have a foundation but lack that star
2013-14 Phoenix Suns
- Went 48-34 after a single bad year post-Steve Nash
- New coach in Jeff Hornacek
- Good mix of youth and veterans
- Both Morris twins
- 5th year Goran Dragic
- 2nd year PJ Tucker
- 3rd year Eric Bledsoe
- Went on to have 6 straight losing seasons
- Lot of good players came and went:
- Seth Curry
- TJ Warren
- Reggie Bullock
- Derrick Jones Jr.
- Swings and misses
- Marquisse Chriss
- Dragan Bender
- Josh Jackson
- Lot of good players came and went:
Takeaways:
- PHX executed a transition and found some success but they lacked the super star
- Even after drafting him (Booker) they lacked the development around him
- They had bad luck (can happen, for sure)
- They’ve still achieved more post-Steve Nash than Utah has post-Stockton/Malone in less time
- Always fun; heck no
- Quantity vs quality game
Close
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