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Today:
- Did the Jazz choose the right direction this offseason?
Guest:
- Ken Clayton (@k_clayt)
- Contributor to Salt City Hoops
- CBA guru
- Jazz flight tracker
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Did the Jazz choose the right direction this offseason?
The success to start this season is prompting a lot of questions.
Our question is if the Jazz went the right direction with “the blowup”?
Assumptions:
- Jazz are executing a transition but are all in on winning
- Jazz still hire Will Hardy: Quin was going to leave no matter what
- Jazz still trade O’Neale: flexibility move Jazz needed no matter what
- House, Hernangomez, etc., aren’t shoe-in returning players
- We preserve “full hindsight” in our analysis
Scenario 1: Stay the course
9 Man Rotation:
- Starters: Conley, Mitchell, ?, Bogdanovic, Gobert
- Next 4: Clarkson, ?, Gay, ?
Other Figures:
- Unprotected 1sts: 6 (assuming OKC conveys)
- Protected 1sts: 1
- Median Age: 29
- ’23-’24 Guaranteed Roster Count: 8
- ’23-’24 Guaranteed Salary vs Cap: 91%
Questions:
- How does this team play offensively?
- Spread PnR, some isolation
- How does this team play defensively?
- I think they get out of the shell a bit more
- Probably force some more turnovers
- Gobert on the perimeter more and accountability on the backline
- How fun is this group?
- They’d win a lot but just transplanting Hardy doesn’t solve root cause Gobert/Mitchell
- What’s the immediate ceiling?
- Still “contender” but no one trusts them, potentially even themselves
- What’s the contender window for this squad?
- Probably had two years, until Conley’s contract ends
- How optimistic are you for the future?
- Not very; real improvement would’ve cost those far out picks
Scenario 2: Rudy trade
9 Man Rotation:
- Starters: Conley, Mitchell, Bogdanovic, Vanderbilt, ?
- Next 4: Clarkson, Beasley, Gay, Kessler
Other Figures:
- Unprotected 1sts: 9 (assuming OKC conveys)
- Protected 1sts: 2
- Median Age: 27
- ’23-’24 Guaranteed Roster Count: 7
- ’23-’24 Guaranteed Salary vs Cap: 59%
Questions:
- How does this team play offensively?
- Depends on the C; they go after Kelly, we see a lot of PnR and PnP
- Pretty prolific offensively
- Don’t anticipate a rolling big with Vando
- How does this team play defensively?
- They probably are trying to lean into that caos but they’re average best case scenario
- How fun is this group?
- Pretty prolific offensively
- Definitely would’ve been good and deep, with assets to improve
- What’s the immediate ceiling?
- Competitive in 1st round, likely not exiting the 2nd
- What’s the contender window for this squad?
- Depends on Mitchell-Hardy; no Gobert means Don is happier
- Still is probably only 2 years
- How optimistic are you for the future?
- Jazz have a ton of guard depth and shooting; ideally you snag a John Collins type with the extra assets
- Reasonably optimistic that we’re getting younger and more flexible
Scenario 3: Donovan trade
9 Man Rotation:
- Starters: Conley, Clarkson, Bogdanovic, Markkanen, Gobert
- Next 4: Sexton, ?, Gay, ?
Other Figures:
- Unprotected 1sts: 9 (assuming OKC conveys)
- Protected 1sts: 1
- Median Age: 29
- ’23-’24 Guaranteed Roster Count: 8
- ’23-’24 Guaranteed Salary vs Cap: 87%
Questions:
- How does this team play offensively?
- A ton of spread PnR with good shooters
- I don’t think Lauri is quite as unlocked via cuts with Gobert in the middle
- Still very efficient and potent
- How does this team play defensively?
- Secondary rim protection was always missing since Favors
- Not quick at all on the perimeter
- How fun is this group?
- I think this group is really fun; no Don-Rudy hanging over everything
- Rudy would’ve stayed as long as we wanted
- What’s the immediate ceiling?
- Because this version of Lauri isn’t a #1, volume scorer, you’re looking at competitive first round only
- What’s the contender window for this squad?
- You realistically have 2-3 years, rest of Gobert’s prime and contract
- How optimistic are you for the future?
- Not all that confident; Jazz are still too old
- Jazz would’ve been forced to execute another star trade (Butler?) immediately
- Depth compromised
Scenario 4: Full blowup
9 Man Rotation:
- Starters: Conley, Clarkson, Markkanen, Vanderbilt, Olynyk
- Next 4: Sexton, Beasley, Gay, Kessler
Other Figures:
- Unprotected 1sts: 12 (assuming OKC conveys)
- Protected 1sts: 2
- Median Age: 26
- ’23-’24 Guaranteed Roster Count: 7
- ’23-’24 Guaranteed Salary vs Cap: 58%
Questions:
- What’s the immediate ceiling?
- Competitive in the first round
- What’s the contender window for this squad?
- Because of Lauri(25) and Kessler(21), there’s nearly a decade if the Jazz play it right
- How optimistic are you for the future?
- Pretty optimistic though true contention requires a #1, a top 10-15 player
- We don’t have one
- Pretty optimistic though true contention requires a #1, a top 10-15 player
Conclusion
Which direction did you want at the time? Why?
- I wanted #1 or #2
- It either works with two top 20 players excelling on either side of the ball or not
Which direction would you choose now with perfect hindsight? Why?
- Either #2 or #4
- Hardy has been that impressive with his relationships; could’ve done wonders for Donovan
- Still concern over Don bolting
Close
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