Trader Danny’s Dilemma | Podcast

Today we talk about the decision fast approaching Ainge and the front office on where to take this team. We throw out a player upgrade idea and reasons behind it. We wrap up with five, not-so-outlandish takes on this year’s team.
2022-23
season
tanking
winning
Danny Ainge
future
direction
Author

Adam Bushman

Published

November 15, 2022

Intro

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Today:

  • Trader Danny’s Dilemma
  • Upgrade Idea
  • 5 Luke-warm Takes

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Trader Danny’s Dilemma

Jazz at 10-5, with every win, approach decision time more, more quickly:

  • FiveThirtyEight projects #7 odds is 36 wins: Jazz need to go 0.388 rest of the way
  • FiveThirtyEight projects #14 odds is 41 wins: Jazz need to go 0.462 rest of the way

3 Options Danny & FO have to weigh:

  • Trade the vets, hit the tank
  • Steady as she goes
  • Make a move to chase contention

Trade the vets, hit the tank

Concerns:

  • Vibes are good; does that create issues culturally?
    • Conley wants to stay, not uproot his family
    • Clarkson has become the cultural icon of the franchise
    • Markkanen’s talked about “the noise”
  • Are there deals to be made?
    • Issues in the offseason with Conley’s partial guarantee
    • Sure, reported markets for Clarkson, Beasley…but for positive value? Assets?
    • Most of the time, takes a while to make deals: eligibility dates, etc.
  • Other considerations
    • Finances
    • Fanbase excitement
    • All-Star game

Steady as she goes

Concerns:

  • We aren’t really a contender
    • No real #1 guy
    • Lack of rim deterrence
    • Scouting is catching up; book on the Jazz is getting out
    • Injuries are inevitable (Conley)
  • Middle-class bound
    • Jazz are often outside of the contender class but rarely first in line for top, incoming talent

Most likely outcome:

  • Main goal was figuring out what the Jazz have; there’s still some work to do there
  • MIN being toxic, BKN being combustible, and PHI being jekyll & hyde gives the impression there’s enough in the aggregate
  • A lot of equity with the organization and fanbase by letting it ride out

Make a move to chase contention

Concerns:

  • Jazz have all the mid-tier guys; “upgrade” is going to take a great player
    • Who out there is available?
  • Who fits the bill
    • Kevin Durant
    • Luka Doncic
    • Most will require a trade request
  • Can the Jazz execute fast enough?
    • Deals at the deadline are for NEXT season

Upgrade Idea

What to look for in an “upgrade”?

  • Under contract for a while
  • Playoff and maybe Finals experience
  • History as a top 15 guy
  • Fits the team’s culture/identity
  • Addresses areas of weakness and fits positionally
  • Is actually available

To me, that’s Jimmy Butler!

The trade:

  • Butler -> UTA
  • Sexton, Beasley, ~4 1st picks (2 unprotected) -> MIA - MIA: comfortably below tax this year, potentially get out of tax next year’
    • MIA is disappointing this year:
    • Bill Simmons Pod: are the Heat done?
      • 7-7 record; eeked out win over PHX; Bam/Lowry hot and cold
    • Jimmy’s not “available”, just as Gobert wasn’t - UTA: stays just below the tax this year - Other ways to change slightly with players and picks

Why does Jimmy make sense?

  • Under contract for 3 more years; suddenly you have a 3 yr window
    • By 2026 offseason (UTA-CLE-MIN swap year), Jazz transition again to new era
  • Playoff & Finals experience
    • 97 career games
  • History of a top 15 guy
    • SI Top 100: last year ranked 11, this year ranked 10
    • Averaging 21 pts, 6 rbs, 6 ast on +0.3 rTS; 18 TSA/gm (Lauri is at 14, by comparison; Doncic at 25)
  • Fits the team’s culture/identity
    • Elite scorer: consistently positive rTS%
    • Elite play maker: +25 AST% past four seasons (Conley career avg: 29%)
    • Terrific size and perimeter defense
      • Active rebounder and disruptor
    • He’s always about going hard, extra, etc.
  • Addresses areas of weakness and fits positionally
    • Slots into the starting 2 spot
    • Mid-range scoring (need in playoffs) and gets to the line
    • Rotation:
      • Starters: Conley, Butler, Markkanen, Vanderbilt, Olynyk
      • Bench: Horton-Tucker, Clarkson, Gay, Kessler
  • Is actually available
    • MIA has started super slow and disappointed
    • Committed to Bam & Herro
    • In MIA, with picks and cap space, they can get anyone
      • 2024 offseason after Lowry is gone, they could sign or trade for a ton of amazing players

There’s absolutely risks with such a deal.

UTA discovered they have a #2 and a handful of #3-#4 options post-Rudy/Don trades.

Jazz can make this deal and still be positive in draft capital.

5 Luke-warm Takes

Hot takes are a bit overrated.

Ultimately a good opportunity to share stuff on my mind!

  1. Kessler needs ~22 mpg
    • Hardy has him at 15 minutes
    • Olynyk is really good but…
    • Kessler has earned more time
    • Kessler is impacting the game at a high level and addresses unique weaknesses
  2. Collin’s a better player than 3rd year Sexton
    • We (including me) talk about Collin getting back to that level
    • But we don’t want that production with those habits
    • I’d prefer this production with better habits
      • Better discipline defensively
      • This approach to efficiency (FTAr & 3PAr)
      • This activity on the glass
      • This accountability
    • It’s still not great but he’s developing better process
  3. The collective approach offensively works in the regular season but not the playoffs
    • Our top player (Lauri) is far below the usage of other stars
    • This distribution of offensive role, efficiency, etc. is really difficult to beat
      • Any given night anyone can produce
      • Limited scouting reports & preparation
        • Saw this in the PHI & WAS games; scouting can blow up a team of a lot of “good”
    • Come playoffs, that model doesn’t work
      • Sure, you need good guys to punish loading up on the star
      • But with playoff prep, switching defenses, you need the star who can handle high usage and punish good matchups
    • That’s what spells trouble for Utah
      • Likely playoff matchups
        • DAL: Luka
        • PHX: Booker
        • DEN: Jokic
  4. The opponent 3P shooting isn’t THAT crazy
    • Zach Lowe has talked about it a few times on his podcast
    • Last year’s league low was 33.9% (Jazz currently at 32.5%)
      • Opponents make 6 more 3’s, Jazz are at last year’s low
      • Someone has to be the best team and so far it’s not blatantly out of the ordinary
    • Some data points to evaluate process * Jazz are allowing the lowest opponent frequency * Jazz allowing the 2nd fewest corner 3’s (the one’s you want) * Jazz allowing the fewest C&S 3’s (those are the ones you want) * Jazz allowing the 3rd fewest WIDE open 3’s (6+ ft of space)
    • Opponent 3P talent?? (past 3 year efficiency/volume data)
      • Bottom 10: HOU, HOU, MEM, MEM, LAL, LAL, DAL, WAS
        • Stroked against us? DEN, MEM, LAL
      • Middle 10: DEN, DEN, ATL, PHI
      • Top 10: MIN, NOP, LAC
    • Upcoming??
      • NYK: 15th
      • PHX: 19th
      • POR: 14th
    • Jazz?? 8th in shooting talent
  5. Our starting lineup is fun but it’s only average
    • Think about it: no star, lots of good, modern style
    • CTG: top lineups (100+ minutes)
      • NBA best? Embiid + Maxey + PHI, no Harden: +33.4
      • NBA worst? George + LAC, no Leonard: -30.5
      • Jazz single lineup?
        • Starters: Conley-Clarkson-Markkanen-Vanderbilt-Olynyk
        • -0.1, 38%tile, 280 possessions

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