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Adam Bushman Twitter | @adam_bushman
Today:
- Did we just ruin “the tank”?
- An ode to Will Hardy!
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Did we just ruin tanking?
Jazz are 8-3, 2nd in the West
What was the goal?
- Victor or bust?
- Remember, 86% chance to NOT get him
- 2 other teams share those odds
- IF THAT’S THE GOAL
- Yeah, “worst record in the league” was always pipe dream
- All but impossible now
- Get a franchise player?
- If there’s 5 franchise guys…
- The #3 spot -> 67% probability
- The #7 spot -> 30% probability
- IF THAT’s THE GOAL
- No, we’re not far enough “out of it”
- Plenty of even bad teams have had good stretches
- 2022 OKC: 5-2 stretch (ended 14th in West) -> got Chet
- 2019 CHA: 5-3 stretch (ended 9th in East) -> got LaMelo
- 2018 DAL: 6-3 stretch (ended 13th in West) -> got Luka
- 2015 SAC: 9-4 stretch (ended 13th in West) -> got Cauley-Stein
- 2007 CHI: 7-4 stretch (ended 11th in East) -> got Rose
- 2004 UTA: 7-3 stretch (ended 14th in West) -> got Deron
- If there’s 5 franchise guys…
Who were supposed to be the tanking teams?
- SAS: 5-5
- Keldon Johnson is an MIP candidate
- OKC: 4-5
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is at All-Star/All-NBA level
- HOU: 1-9
- Just don’t defend
- DET: 2-8
- Development underway; could easily have a 7-3 stretch
- ORL: 2-8
- Development underway; could easily have a 7-3 stretch
- IND: 4-5
- Bennedict Mathurin is awesome
Who’s down at the bottom now?
- BKN: heavy tax team; w/ KD, they aren’t tanking
- MIA: heavy tax team; w/ Butler, they aren’t tanking
- PHI: don’t own their ’23 first so no incentive
- MIN: don’t own their ’23 first so no incentive
- GSW: heavy tax team; w/ Steph, they aren’t tanking
- SAC: could go either way; definite reasons to tank
- LAL: NOP has rights to swap ’23 first so no incentive
New working scenario:
- Jazz land with 7th best odds (~8%)
- T-Wolves can’t figure it out; end with 12th best odds (~4%)
- Nets never recover from Kyrie, Sixers never achieve potential; end with 12th best odds (~2%)
- Suddenly Jazz have 3 lottery picks, 14% chance at Wembanyama
Ultimately, the takeaway right now is “the tank” isn’t lost.
Jazz have a lot of options. They are approaching a pivot point, however, of deciding which path they want to take for the remainder of the season. We’ll see what they do.
It’s the preferred scenario that you have good players as opposed to nothing remotely functional.
An ode to Will Hardy!
William Hardy Touched the hearties Of his players Now they slayers Opponent down To Jazz the crown Oh Hardy You go so Hardy
Okay, enough of the ode. But seriously, Will deserves some mad props.
Remember back to his interviews and press conferences. What was the pitch?
- Relationships
- Accountability
- Communication
- Toughness
- Play hard
Everyone says this kind of stuff. It’s your boilerplate, new head-coach message.
Serious questions:
- Would he tailor coaching to players?
- Would players need to change to coaching?
- Would he prioritize shot distribution strategies?
- Would he empower or would he smother?
- Would the message resonate?
- Would he achieve chemistry with the group?
I attribute most of this early success to Will:
- Clearly he found an intersection between his style and the strengths of the team
- Yes defense even without rim protection
- Not afraid to roll with the hot hand/lineup (vs LAC rolling with Collin)
- Clearly he’s empowered his players to be their best self
- Lauri from EuroBasket
- Conley revival
- Vanderbilt increased handling responsibilities
- Clearly the team is on the same page and has found incredible chemistry
- You don’t become a top clutch team w/o it
- Clearly he values efficiency: transition & shot distribution
- Jazz generate huge advantages in 3P frequency
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